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LONDON (Reuters) If oil prices stay where Canada Goose Jackets they are or go even higher, depending canada goose uk black friday on events in uk canada goose outlet the Middle East current short term emerging market portfolio realignments could lead to a canada goose uk outlet wholesale canadian goose jacket reassessment of investor risk.
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Oil rich Russia, Kazakhstan and Venezuela are all attracting investor interest and strongly increased fund flows, while oil canada goose black friday sale poor Turkey and Chile are suffering.
canada goose outlet factory that got more oil is looking better at the moment, so oil exporters would benefit, and oil importers would not, said Allan Conway, head of emerging equities buy canada goose jacket at fund manager Schroders. one of the reasons Turkey is going down. investment bank Lehman Canada Goose Online in Sept 2008. canada goose outlet factory
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GROWTH CHALLENGED Oil has risen $20 so far this year and a sustained price of $110 a barrel in 2011 would cut Turkish growth to 4 percent from expectations of 5.5 percent, according to Renaissance Capital.
Russia would grow at 5.5 percent instead of 4.9 percent and Nigeria at 9.6 percent instead of 7.6 percent, Renaissance added.
Russian equity funds have absorbed fresh money for 14 weeks in a row, according to fund tracker EPFR, their longest inflow since the first quarter of 2008, at a time when global emerging market equity funds have suffered their longest outflow streak since Q3 2008.
canada goose outlet uk The currencies of Russia and Kazakhstan have also been reaping the benefits, with both countries becoming increasingly flexible over trading bands in recent weeks, allowing their currencies to soar. canada goose outlet uk
canada goose outlet toronto the events in the Middle East, the possible appreciation canada goose coats on sale in oil and the macro story, long rouble has been a consensus trade, said Luis Costa, director, emerging markets FX strategy at Citi. canada goose outlet toronto
Meanwhile, energy importer Israel is also under pressure from concern about a tougher peace negotiating environment going forward, with the country debt insurance uk canada goose costs spiking to their highest in nearly two years following the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
is going to suffer the most from this change in the region, Turker Hamzaoglu, MENA economist at BoA ML, told a conference call.
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If there are peaceful resolutions to many of the region conflicts, oil could fall, reversing current favoured canada goose uk shop positions.
Credit Suisse, for example, last week went overweight in Turkish stocks in an emerging Europe, Middle East and https://www.winterdownparkas.com Africa portfolio, saying valuations had become attractive.
canada goose womens outlet But with Facebook calls for protests in the world top oil exporter Saudi Arabia on March 11, oil could also rise extremely quickly, punching a hole in the global growth outlook canada goose womens outlet.